EGYPT

After Sept 11, President Bush enjoined us to chose between ourselves and the terrorists. In Tunisia in December 2010 the choice was between a friendly dictator and a Taliban type regime in a North African country.

This is a familiar historical cycle. A spontaneous movement spreads among dissatisfied subordinate groups. The challenged rulers make concessions. Are they sufficient? The liberal bourgeoisie desires to get back on the smoother road.  The protesting tide must choose: collect your gain or double you bet. The younger segment wants to replace the  aging autocracy. Often an outside factious group intrudes in the disorder and imposes its own Mafiosi interests.

Remember the suggestion by Jeane Kirkpatrick some 30 years ago that pro western authoritarian regime were preferable to the totalitarian regime that may replace them. Enthused Ronald Reagan nominated her to be US Ambassador to the United Nations. No doubt the replacement of the Shah by the Ayatollahs in Iran and the substitution of President Somosa by the Sandinistas in Nicaragua are two examples that the evils of a moderate autocracy well disposed toward American interests are preferable to unfriendly extremism.

As of today- Friday Feb 4 2011- The situation in Egypt is still evolving. Will the  pro western and well remunerated  friendship of strong man, Mubarak or his successor going to continue? Or worse are the Islamists going to seize power before the current democratic protesters establish an egalitarian government?

Protests  for democracy and freedom stem from the suppression of the motto of the French revolution “ Liberté, Egalité, Fraternité” by a brutal police, a stale parasitic bourgeoisie, a corrupt leader, a future without hope.

Let us hope that we are not heading for a new Nasser and international trade compromised by a blocked Suez canal.